Gartner has released its latest “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2024,” and in it, generative AI (GenAI) is roughly where you’d expect: on the far side of the “peak of inflated expectations” and on the cusp of “disillusionment,” according to Datanami.
Every August, Gartner analysts share their thoughts on the hot new technologies. From digital twins and the metaverse to data fabric and “smart dust,” there’s not a single technology that hasn’t caught their eye.
Gen AI first appeared in the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2020,” where it was spotted alongside composite AI and adaptive ML. OpenAI had already released GPT-3, and its human-like reactions were making heads turn.
In 2021, GenAI was still emerging from the “innovation trigger” phase of the hype cycle, as entire classes of analysts warned that large language models (LLMs) were causing a wave of disruption from unexpected opportunities.
GenAI was completely left out of the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2022,” even though image models like OpenAI’s DALL-E had excited us about what GenAI could do. Gartner instead focused on things like NFTs, digital humans, and the metaverse.
But after OpenAI released ChatGPT in late 2022, the cat was out of the bag, and GenAI made a triumphant return to the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2023,” where it re-emerged at the “peak of inflated expectations.”
Evolution and Future of GenAI
As the hype around GenAI begins to fade and companies look for use cases that will actually deliver value and ROI, Gartner is pushing the technology further down its path. According to the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Tech 2024,” it’s still at the “peak of inflated expectations,” but is on the cusp of “disillusionment.” After that, if all goes according to plan, it will enter a path of “overcoming shortcomings,” followed by a “plateau of productivity.”
GenAI will evolve over time to serve useful purposes, according to Arun Chandrasekaran, Distinguished Vice President and Analyst at Gartner. “GenAI is passing the ‘peak of inflated expectations’ as businesses continue to shift focus from the hype around core models to use cases that deliver ROI,” he says. “This is accelerating the development of autonomous AI. While the current generation of AI models lack autonomy, AI research labs are accelerating the release of agents that can dynamically interact with their environment to achieve given goals, although this development will be gradual.”
According to Gartner, GenAI belongs to an emerging class of AI it calls autonomous AI — AI systems that can operate with minimal human supervision, improve themselves, and make good decisions in complex environments.
“These advanced AI systems that can do anything a human can do are starting to move from science fiction to reality,” says Gartner. “These technologies include multi-agent systems, large action models, machine clients, humanoid worker robots, autonomous agents, and reinforcement learning.”
Other Emerging Technologies to Watch
Don’t let AI distract you from other topics, warns Chandrasekaran. “While AI continues to attract attention, CIOs and other IT leaders should explore other emerging technologies that have transformative potential for developers, security, customer engagement, and employees, and develop a strategy for using these technologies that aligns with their organizations’ ability to handle unproven technologies,” he says.
Other emerging technologies Gartner says are worth watching include developer productivity tools like AI-enabled software engineering, native cloud, GitOps, internal developer portals, hint engineering, and WebAssembly.
In terms of customer experience, Gartner is paying close attention to technologies like customer digital twins, spatial computing, super apps, and 6G networks.
Security and privacy round out the top four technology categories Gartner is tracking this time around, with special mentions for AI TRiSM, cybersecurity architecture, digital immune system, disinformation protection, federated ML, and homomorphic encryption, adds NIXsolutions.
We’ll keep you updated on any new developments in these emerging technologies as they progress through Gartner’s Hype Cycle.